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Good point! Interesting to see how much cheaper old ships become, it totally makes sense why rebuilding is considered so often.The 2 used Calais-Dover ferries of Irish Ferries was very very cheap - so IF "must" have still a lot of money. The new FSG 777 was ordered, with own money and partly EU-money for a better connection Ireland-France, so ca. 90% of this money "must" be still there. And - as you said - it would be a good sister to WB Yeats. But maybe there will come a big surprise one day and somebody from Asia has bought Honfleur... .
1993 all people was waiting who in Europe buys the 1990 built very nice ferry KALYPSO from Viking Line - and then it goes as big surprise to Asia as Casino-ship... - ((and actually this sister from DFDS Pearl Seaways is for sale again very cheap for 17,5 Mio. Euro only)).
I do not believe in Brittany, they have now a modern fleet including the last 2 new ordered smaller E-Flexer with high Pax-capacity.
Salamanca + Santona will indirectly replace Barfleur and Connemara now in 2022/23 and in 2024/25 the 2 new E-Flexer will replace Bretagne and Normandie.
Then the oldest ferry in the Brittany-fleet is the former Superfast 5 (Cap Finistere) from 2001, following one from 2002 and one from 2004. So Brittany now can wait CIRCA 10 years with the order of the next newbuilding, then also the charters of the Stena E-Flexers are ending.
Your speculations sound very plausible. I forgot all about Connemara being a chartered vessel from Stena RoRo, so it makes sense that BF will stick to a 5 E-Flexer fleet - without Honfleur.Small "Brittany" Excursion...why Honfleur will not match anymore with Brittany:
A modernisation or / and lenghtening with 30m (= then the same size as the last E-Flexer with ca. 195m) of the 2007 built COTENTIN with more cabins and 2, 3 restaurants, bars and Tax-Free-shop and pullman-seats-lounge for to be a "typical" Brittany ferry is easy possible. And i think that the Visentini-CONNEMARA will soon go back to Stena-RoRo when the new SALAMANCA is in use - she is just TODAY passing Portugal on her delivery-trip from China actually with 21,6 knots. This was the main-reason for the charter of the Stena E-Flexer - to replace the "old" Visentinis from Stena. And the BARFLEUR goes away latest when the new SANTONA-E-Flexer arrive in 1 ca. year. And NORMANDIE and BRETAGNE will be replaced 2024/25 with the last both E-Flexers. So Brittany then has got 5 newbuildings in 5 years and the oldest ship is then from 2001. Why an expensive newbuilding more now ? I think that Brittany has switched the planned money for HONFLEUR into charter-fee for the 2 last new E-Flexer. And Brittany has then in 2025 with 9 big modern ferries (+ COTENTIN would be number 10) one of the most modern and biggest (all ferries between 1100 - 2400 Pax !) ferry-fleets worldwide which much higher truck- and pax-capacity than 2019. And if they want or need then 1 "big" ferry more they can easy built the COTENTIN bigger and if they need 2 ferries more (maybe in 3, 4, 5 years suddenly) Stena RoRo will help fast again f.ex. with a new Visentini-charter.
So please do not look now just only today to the replacements - this is not 1:1 sometimes, the ferries will also maybe switched or changed between routes. But if you compare the fleet 2019 with 2025 all chartered Visentinis and older ferries from the 80ies and 90ies will be replaced with new bigger and more comfortable ferries (a Visentini is really not so comfortable...).